If crypto drifts lower it will not be because of the agencies who are no longer participating thru channels broken by 10/10 but by-asset crosswinds elsewhere (surprising T1 TCO sell, recession, AI CAPEX boom, etc)
$50B: the total amount of visible spot flow from ETF and TCos traceable to BTC and ETH since the start of July (so last 3 months). It is your call to evaluate how many degrees removed / connected that is to crypto specific firms (allocators and/or facilitators)
The questions I have instead are:
a) have vulnerable firms sold and,
b) if not, can they / will they sell here & what are their bottlenecks. That’s it
Part of advancing past the 4Y cycle notion is evolving beyond the traditionalists. The cleanest way of doing so is showing that their participation is no longer needed
The incentive to be bearish here is high stakes. Falling here helps enforce 4Y cycle theory and the lifeline that market fractals may still be uncharged
Continuation upward circumvents this and makes this school of thought (TA, “signals” extinct), comprising edge erasure
Look at the ppl who are bearish vs those who are not. You can classify them by class/year joining CT (with some small exceptions, like those who are just bearish 24/7)
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