Bullish thesis for Ethena based on @theempirepod with @gdog97_ 🔹 Bullish Thesis for Ethena (USDe/ENA) @ethena_labs transforms the "crypto dollar" from a passive payment tool into a scalable "savings-trading" asset with real revenue, leveraging delta-neutral carry strategy (spot-long/perp-short), Aave-Pendle money-lego composability, and rapid institutional adoption (iUSDe, Coinbase Prime, SPV/DAT). During Fed easing cycles, its yield typically rises (leverage demand ↑, funding ↑), while traditional issuers (USDC) see yields fall. This positions Ethena as a beneficiary of the next DeFi wave and contender for "default yield-bearing dollar" for trading and savings. 🔹Why the Bull Case is Probable 1. High Operating Leverage Business Model - Already >$12-13B USDe; >$500M gross interest income; ~$30M rewards/30 days - At $30B USDe and ~10% GII: $3B gross income; take-rate 10-20% ⇒ $300-600M annual revenue - Team ~27 people, "soft-scalability" ⇒ target 50-70% net margin 2. Macro Tailwinds: Rate Cutting Cycle - Fed rates ↓ ⇒ crypto perp funding often ↑ (leverage demand returns), USDe yield improves - Unlike Circle (revenue tied to T-bills), Ethena benefits from easing - countercyclical advantage 3. DeFi Yield Composability Already Working - @aave (cheap funding) + CeFi perps (high funding) + Pendle (locks in floating USDe yield) = sustainable carry trades - Strong network effects; token incentives already "don't move the needle" - product generates "real" yield 4. DAT as TradFi-to-DeFi Liquidity "Pipeline" - SPAC structures StablecoinX/TLGY convert "locks" into spot purchases, bringing new demand from public markets - Main upside - credit carry bridge: borrow 5-6% in TradFi → deploy 10%+ in USDe on-chain ⇒ massive TVL inflow to DeFi (Aave/Spark/Sky/Pendle) 5. Institutional Product Suitei - $USDe (KYC-SPV) targeting >50% of USDe within 2-3 years - Coinbase Prime, USDTB (with Anchorage) under JUNIUS for "clean" payments - Clear path to ETP/ETF-like products for "yield-bearing dollar" 6. TAM and Market Share - Stablecoin market ≈ $2-3T within 3-4 years; yield-bearing segment will grow faster - Ethena - first real competitor to USDT/USDC in trading/savings, already top-3 issuer 7. Revenue Source Expansion - Ethena's share of crypto OI already ~9-10% - Next driver - equity perps (expecting hundreds of billions $ OI within 2-3 years) - USDe scales into new carry niche - CME/ETF derivatives available for hedging/scaling 8. Flexible Competitive Position - With @Tether_to - cooperation (often top USDT holder for hedges) - With @circle - competition: USDe is "savings-trading" collateral, not payment rails - Ethena's niche - "yield-bearing dollar" for perps/DeFi and savings, where USDe is objectively more useful 9. Network Effects and BD Focus - Power law dynamics: 3-5 key partners (Aave, Pendle, leading CEX/perp exchanges, Coinbase Prime) drive P&L - Opportunity to become default collateral, "like Tether in CeFi, but with yield" 10. Near-term Catalysts - iUSDe launch and first major SPV tickets - New wave of DAT rounds and TradFi debt inflow to DeFi - Deep native CEX integration (yield-bearing collateral) - HIP-3/Hyperliquid: USDe markets, fee sharing (50%), "USDe-only" strategy option - Growing @pendle_fi share (fixed rates) + expansion to Spark/Sky/Aave - Crypto market transition to "Fed easing - leverage - funding ↑" phase - Steps toward equity perps (major listings, integrations) @ethena_labs is on path to becoming the standard "yield-bearing dollar" for trading and savings in the crypto economy - with scalable revenue in the hundreds of millions, high margins, powerful macro tailwinds, and a liquidity "pipeline" from TradFi to DeFi. Tagging some $ENA chads: @blknoiz06 @CryptoHayes @Degenerate_DeFi @Pentosh1 @CryptoStreamHub @DeFi_Dad @simononchain @alpha_pls