Avalanche price

I am out of the bulk of my long adds from mid-99k btwn 102 - 104k and back to a 10% delta-1 long position with an additional ~10% in short-dated BTC calls. Like many, I was hoping for a much stronger bounce off the 99 level, which looked like a durable near-term bottom to me (double tap + around key level + took out the 100k line-in-sand stop losses). I was originally targeting 107 - 112 but this now looks out-of-scope. @plur_daddy and @fejau_inc have raised great points around liquidity constraints into end of October, and looser conditions should’ve juiced us considerably from the lows. While this continues to remain in play along with potential upticks on the US gov’t reopening, this doesn’t excuse BTC/crypto’s horrendous underperformance vs. macro factors since early October. On the macro front, momentum continues to unwind generally with ES breaking support today and KOSPI gapping down. That Korean degens have migrated from crypto to stonks is in itself quite telling. We've lost one of our major sources of speculative bid, and this also indicates a broader shift of capital from coins to equities. To remain intellectually honest and explain crypto’s idio underperformance, we can look to the supply-side. The continued pressure from OG whales has dogged us since mid-July and these were likely the entities entering the orderbooks yesterday with significant stacked asks in the book btwn 105 - 110k. Additionally, the 4y cycle has not been invalidated yet. What worries me the most at this juncture is that 99k was not low enough a price to truly scare those who haven’t yet formed an opinion on the validity of the 4y cycle—these players have not been forced to capitulate, and the next likely stop for that reconsideration looks to be the low-90s. This bounce was a pleasant respite from the down-only PA, but demand-side also remains challenged. DATs have flipped from net buying to neutral to outright selling. ETFs are unwinding both carry positions and outright longs. Macro rotatooors are likely no longer interested with gold stalling out as well. For a product with no fundamentals and a heavy momentum slant, constant inflows are the tequila shots that keep the party going. That said, I continue to believe the picture looks better here for alts than majors. Name selection will continue to matter more, but most alts have been wiped of leverage off the Oct. 10 collapse and the only natural sellers that remain are insiders/team members/VC investors. Meanwhile, large caps will continue to suffer as mercenary flows exit the asset. Execution Thoughts: Have given up about 40% of my gains on the retrace post-rally, but I am a trader who much prefers selling late to selling early. This is an acceptable number for me given the r/r I mapped out at the time. On this dip, I torqued my exposure up to about ~95% at max including alts/calls. Previously on similar types of dips (Trump/Epstein fud, Iran/Israel war, Labour Day nuke, etc), I was happy to get up to 150+% long. Context is important and HTF trend is no longer on our side, and the demand/supply imbalance is too extreme to ignore. While I strongly prefer being a bull, it is difficult to find reasons to continue holding as much exposure as I have before. Good luck out there. h/t @TraderBot888 for our discussions on much of the above - great follow for anyone who hasn't already.

Epoch reset. Metrics refreshed. Pharaoh continues to lead @avax in real yield. 🔺