US Shutdown ending today.
Liquidity about to come back. Rate cuts next?
Here’s why today’s vote could flip the market mood entirely
🧵 👇
1/ After 42 days, America’s longest shutdown could finally end tonight.
The House passed the funding bill, and the Senate is expected to seal the deal within hours.
Markets are already sniffing it out with risk assets quietly positioning long.
2/ Why US Shutdown is important for investors?
Markets don’t just fear lost output but they fear uncertainty.
When Washington stops publishing data, investors fly blind.
Risk assets retreat, liquidity tightens, and gold usually spikes as a safe haven.
2/ Here’s something to notice about the shutdown
Even with a frozen government, markets barely flinched.
S&P 500 dropped less than 0.3%.
Gold spiked to $4,000, but no crash came.
Bitcoin with a small correction but still above $100kf
3/ History was bullish every time a shutdown ends.
Since 1990, the S&P 500 has risen after every shutdown with average +4.4% in 3 months, +12.7% in 12 months.
Relief + restored data + Fed dovishness = rally fuel.
4/ This vote doesn’t just end political gridlock.
It clears the path for Jerome Powell to deliver December’s early Christmas gift with a 25bps rate cut that injects fresh liquidity right when markets need it most.”
5/ Before the shutdown: markets priced an 88% chance of a December 25bps cut.
After the shutdown, Powell claimed that it helped the economy.
Because delayed data = “soft economy” narrative.
That gives the Fed perfect cover to ease faster.
6/ Add it up 👇
✅ Shutdown over (stability restored)
✅ Data resumes (positive revisions coming)
✅ Rate cuts coming (liquidity injection)
✅ QT ends in December
7/ When QT ended in 2019 → Bitcoin broke out from $3.5K → $13K
Altcoins followed weeks later.
2025 is aligned perfectly. Shutdown’s done.
QT ends next month.
Rate cuts are ready.
ANOTHER PROOF OF ALTSEASON !
> This chart is holding since 2015
> Altcoins bounced after Fed ended QT (2019)
> Fed ends QT after 19 days again
Moves leading upto this have been bullish.
$ZANO towards ATH after $ZK and $ZEC
$TAO and $ICP leading AI
$SEI and $LINK with integrations
Everyone’s busy debating rate cuts and Bitcoin targets.
But this quiet chart might be the biggest clue to what’s coming next for Altcoins.
It tracks the market dominance of Altcoins outside the top 10, and what it’s showing right now looks eerily similar to 2019.
1️⃣ Fed Ended QT in 2019 and Altcoins Took Off
Back in September 2019, when the Fed officially ended Quantitative Tightening (QT), this exact chart was sitting near its long-term support trendline just around 4%.
Within the next 6–9 months, that number shot up to over 12%, meaning smaller-cap Altcoins outperformed majors by a huge margin.
Most people blamed the 2020 liquidity wave on “Covid stimulus,” but this move started months earlier, right after QT ended.
That’s the real historical cue as liquidity began returning to risk assets the moment the Fed paused tightening.
2️⃣ December 2025 ( The Same Setup is Back )
Fast forward to now: the Fed is expected to end QT next month, and this dominance chart is once again hugging the same support line that’s held strong since 2015.
Current levels sit near 7.2%, right where past cycles found their turning point.
The pattern is nearly identical a long-term trendline test, compression of volatility, and weeks of sideways chop before the breakout.
Charts like this don’t shout; they whisper.
And this one’s whispering that smaller Altcoins are loading up for their next phase.
3️⃣ The Room Above is Wide Open
Technically, there’s little resistance until the 12–14% zone, which leaves plenty of upside room if history repeats.
The structure remains intact, the higher lows are in place, and the market is still underexposed to non-top-10 projects.
It’s not about guessing the exact week.
It’s about recognizing that this cycle’s foundation is being laid the same way it was before the last big rotation.
When the Fed steps back, liquidity steps in.
And when that happens, Altcoins outside the spotlight often run the farthest.
8/ The economy even passed its stress test.
Unemployment only ticked up 0.2%.
Corporate earnings? Still growing double digits.
Back pay = $10–15B mini-stimulus.
9/ The Fed has already cut rates twice this year, taking the range to 3.75–4%.
With growth slightly cooler and inflation near 2.5%, a December cut is likely to be priced in.
Ending the shutdown confirms that the soft patch was temporary and not systemic.
10/ We’ve seen this movie before.
2018–2019 shutdown → +26% S&P in next 12 months
Fed easing → Bitcoin +330% same cycle
Expect more in the upcoming months
11/ What to Watch Next
• Senate vote tonight → confidence reset
• QT end (Dec 1) → liquidity switch flips
• FOMC (Dec 18) → rate-cut confirmation
Together, they define Q4’s tone for both equities and crypto
12/ Risk & Reality
Don’t expect fireworks overnight.
Fiscal wounds linger and tariffs still bite.
But the path of least resistance for capital is turning risk-on and that’s what fuels crypto rotations quietly at first, then suddenly.
8,57 tis.
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